California’s population stagnated for the first time in living memory starting in 2019, which introduced a decline in population coupled with covid flight lasting until 2022. The pace of growth stepped up in 2024. Now, 2025 is set to exceed the prior population peak in 2018. This trend of annual population growth is likely to return to the usual annual 1% rate.
The state’s most notable increases since 2022 are taking place in the counties of Riverside, Santa Clara, and Sacramento.
Steady population growth is essential for the long-term health of the housing market, including new household formations and demand for residential rentals and sales. Expect California’s population to continue its present pattern in spite of issues around rent pricing, sales of housing, and the lack of availability by low turnover and weak construction starts.
Updated November 21, 2025.
Chart update 11/21/25
202420232022CA Population
39,431,300
39,198,700
39,142,400
One-year change+232,600+56,300-150Growth rate
+0.6%
+0.1%
+0.0%
Los Angeles San DiegoOrangeRiversideSan Bernardino 201810,105,5003,343,4003,186,0002,450,8002,171,60020229,748,4003,283,8003,158,5002,479,6002,196,00020249,757,2003,298,8003,170,4002,529,9002,214,300One-year growth rate-0.7%
-0.2%
-0.3%
+0.8%
+0.4%
Santa Clara AlamedaSacramentoContra CostaFresno 20181,937,6001,666,8001,541,0001,150,200994,400 20221,883,7001,635,7001,588,7001,160,3001,017,10020241,926,3001,649,1001,611,2001,172,6001,024,100One-year growth rate-0.5%
+0.3%
+0.7%
+0.3%
+0.5%
This article reviews the current shifts in California’s population and examines the potential impact of migration trends on residential rentals and sales.
Population change: the last thirty years
The first of the above charts tracks the annual change in California’s total population since 1980, based on data about births, deaths and immigration as revealed by the U.S. Census. Two charts track population change in California’s ten largest counties. Coincidentally, the five largest are all located in Southern California, and the following five are all in Northern California.
State population growth is essential for a stable housing market. Brokers and agents who know which demographics are likely to move to and from California’s diverse counties will be better positioned to accommodate the needs of those groups when they arrive.
A year without growth in California is almost unheard of: according to the California Department of Finance (DOF), only three counties statewide (Plumas, Sierra and Alpine) saw their populations diminish in the first decade of the new millennium.
Population growth in the modern age
Recently, the smallest increase in population took place in 2006, at the height of the Millennium Boom, when the population’s decelerating growth rate slipped to 0.5%. This was the lowest rate since WWII until the second half of the 2010s saw faltering growth lasting until a major dip in 2021 dropped the population by 1%. While numerous temporary factors influence the rise and fall of California’s population, including birth and death rates, migration, cultural trends and environmental factors, the most important influences by far are economic.
When jobs are plentiful, and housing is available at reasonable prices without the need for significant new construction, people feel empowered to realize the dream of residency in the fabled cities on the Pacific West Coast. A strong economy is an incentive for both interstate and international immigration. A weak local economy discourages the optimistic, causing them to move away.
Indeed, a state without jobs tends to lose people, as they leave for more employment-friendly environments in other states. Historical population trends are thus a valuable contextualizing tool for economic recessions (marked by gray bars in the first chart above).
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Immigration
Immigration, both documented and undocumented, is a major factor for population growth that contributes to the economy of California as well as driving turnover in housing and business spaces for real estate brokers/agents and their clientele.
However, as California’s population growth picks up and other states stagnate, California will attract people for the reasons it did in the past.
More than half of foreign-born California’s are naturalized US citizens, a number that has increased since 2000. It is important to note that most other immigrants are legal permanent residents. Although the state’s birth rate and statewide emigration are both crucial factors influencing state population, migration into the state has been down. California has been functioning with negative net migration rate for domestic and foreign immigration combined since 2016.
Undocumented immigrants are legally able to buy property, borrow mortgage funds and pay property taxes by use of an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN). Thus, the undocumented are of equal importance to the state’s housing market. The Pew Research Center estimated that 14 million undocumented immigrants lived in the United States in 2023.
They include a variety of reasons for being in the country including immigrants who originally entered the country legally or immigrants with other statuses protecting them from deportation such as asylum seekers. Of those 14 million, about 6 million have some protection from deportation.
California’s high rate of immigration, including unauthorized immigration, is a largely positive economic force for everyone involved. Generally improving the standard of living and employment situation for California’s population.
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Migration influences California’s housing market
The result is increased wealth across the state. Reports of competition with the native-born population are exaggerated myths that fog the economic benefit migration brings to California.
Just as important, every new arrival to California soil needs some form of shelter to live in. Again, in spite of opinions to the contrary, immigrants have a positive effect in the housing market — they have the power to buy and sell property, pay taxes and contribute to all forms of economic and cultural activity.
As brokers and their agents develop their businesses to meet each new generation’s real estate paradigm, immigrants remain a crucial part of the puzzle, despite often being neglected by trade union brokers. This is especially relevant in the suburban and rural areas, as the Boomers retire and sell their property, and are replaced by employed immigrants in the next generation of homebuyers.
Intra- and interstate migration
In 2024, Californians numbering 5,012,559 moved from one residence to another (13% of the total state population). 45% of relocating Californians remained in the same county as their former residence in 2023. 16% remained in California but moved to a different county.
Renters are far more likely to relocate than homeowners because of the inherent flexibility: the annual rate of relocation was around 15% for renters, and 6% for owners in 2024. Negative equities will return with the coming recession to again drive up owner relocation percentages to the dismay of builders but not sales agents and MLOs.
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Location is everything, when moving
In collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau, the California Department of Finance (DOF) monitors and forecasts both interstate immigration and intrastate migrations. They present a clear view of which parts of the state are growing or shrinking fastest. While some county populations have remained stable over the last ten years, others have seen their populations explode.
The enormous popularity of Riverside County during the decade is easily explained: as the DOF data indicates, it’s all about housing. For much of the last decade, housing prices in Riverside County grew at a steady rate (one which forecasters erroneously predicted would last forever) while still remaining far more affordable than the coastal cities in nearby counties of Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego.
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As the West’s largest city, Los Angeles will undoubtedly remain the population center for the foreseeable future. Los Angeles County is forecast to have a population of 9,867,515 by 2030 but round out at 9.5 million by 2050.
For comparison, the DOF predicts California’s second and third largest counties in 2050 to be Orange and San Diego, both with anticipated populations of over 3 million. Riverside County is predicted to fall behind.
Although nothing is fact when predicting the future, one thing does seem most probable: the recent politics have greatly affected DOF’s forecast for California’s growth, expecting the state to remain stagnant around 39-40 million people for decades to come.
California’s large and influential populations have introduced new challenges in water management, energy and housing sectors, but it has also been a source of new talent and new opportunities. No other state in the nation has the wealth, resources, entrepreneurial spirit, innovative history and governance that enables California to maintain its distinctive appeal to the rest of the nation. As time passes, and more come to share the appeal of success, the Golden State can expect its population to grow in more than just number.
